Time to Barf: 5 Impacts of the Joey Votto Injury

Learning that Joey Votto needed surgery was like taking a kick to the gonads. Blinding pain, followed by a slow and sickening feeling that didn’t stop until it reached the chestal region.

Apart from maybe Andrew McCutchen, there’s no more important player in all of baseball than Joey Baseball. And now he’s on the shelf, leaving the Reds’ on-base percentage up Poop Creek with no paddle in sight.

It took me a few hours and a handful of Xanax, but I eventually came to grips with this development, and with the fact that the sky isn’t necessarily falling. Not just yet at least.

Here are five rational reactions to the Redlegs’ latest setback...

1. Jay Bruce must step up. Most Reds fans are familiar with the two faces of starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo.That is, “Good-royo” and “Bad-royo.” Most of the time (and apart from his horrendous 2011 season), Arroyo is a stabilizing force in the rotation, consistently giving six or seven innings of quality ball. Sometimes he’ll really click and toss a nine-inning gem.

That’s Good-royo.

Then there’s Bad-royo, the guy who forgets to take his Mr. Hyde polyjuice potion and subsequently gets pounded into next Thursday. Luckily for us, Arroyo has kept his inner-powderkeg under lock and key for most of this season, but Bronson’s not the only Red who’s prone to the extreme swing.

Jay Bruce, he of all the talent in the world, almost NEVER puts it together more than one month at a time. In fact, if Bruce puts up great numbers in two months out of a season, it’s considered a huge success. Witness: in 2010, Bruce hit over .300 in three of the six full months of the season (with an OPS over 1.000 in two of them.) Besides that, he’s only hit over .258 in ONE month of each season (2012 so far, a full 2011, an injury-shortened 2009, and a full 2008.)

With Joey Votto going under the knife today, it’s important that Jay Bruce puts a charge into his current July numbers (.178 BA, .599 OPS). With Brandon Phillips playing about as well as he’ll play and Scott Rolen deteriorating faster than skim milk, Bruce has to make this HIS team.

At least for a month.

2. The Carlos Quentin consideration needs to increase. Before hearing the Votto news, I was pretty much against adding an expensive bat before the trade deadline. Why? Because of Todd Frazier, that’s why. And because Ryan Ludwick has been smashing the ball in July.

The only logical spot for a new guy would be left field, but (until yesterday) Frazier and Ludwick could tag-team that, with the help of a surging Chris Heisey (when he isn’t busy navigating the offensive Bermuda Triangle that is Drew Stubbs’ center field.)

Now, it looks like Frazier will be relegated to near everyday first base duty. Being down one heavy-hitting option in left, I’m more willing now to consider a Carlos Quentin-type transaction, and I think the Reds should be too.

There’s no one in Triple-A that can step in and provide the needed punch that Votto brought. And while Quentin might not either (he’s batting just .147 so far in July), he’d probably still be more effective in the cleanup spot than anyone else at this juncture.

Again, I’m not totally sold...but it’s time this idea got some serious thought.

3. No room for pitching letdowns. Is Joey Votto the best hitter in baseball? Yes. Does he approach every at-bat like a he’s going in against a Sicilian with death on the line? He does.
Would I let him marry my unborn daughter? Twice, and I’d pay.

But is he the reason the Reds are in first place? No, he is not.

The Reds lead the Central because they’ve pitched, plain and simple. Their ERA (3.35) is third in the NL. Their five starters haven’t missed a game. Their bullpen is tops in all of baseball, and led by the Cuban Zeus. They’ve been better than I can ever remember...and I’m 29.

Votto’s injury will really hurt an already mediocre offense. No one’s disputing that. But pitching is what got us here, and pitching can see us through. Believe that.

4. Trust in Joey. When Castellini and Friends signed Joey Votto to what basically amounts to a lifetime contract, and then immediately proceeded to lock up Brandon Phillips, the mantra of the organization changed.

Indeed, the “Now! Now! Please God, just win NOW” refrain has been replaced with the more rational “win now, but not at the expense of winning tomorrow, the next day, and for the next six years.”

As fans, we should not overlook this.

Votto did right when he opted for this surgery. He knew that four months means nothing in the context of the Reds’ Master Plan. He was thinking big picture. He was being calculating (shocker). With the young, talented core that is in place, and the Reds pitchers staying on track, there’s no reason the standings four weeks from today shouldn’t read favorably.

As has always been the case, Joey Votto knows what’s best for Joey Votto. When he’s ready, he’ll be back, and fans/media/management shouldn’t ask for anything more. For yes, winning today is important, but no more than winning in October, and the Octobers that should follow.

5. The Reds can make a statement. Finally, it’s only fair that we put this injury in perspective.

Maybe I’m alone, but since day one (and all throughout Pittsburgh’s renaissance-y first half), I’ve only been worried about St. Louis. Sorry Steelers fans, I mean Pirates fans, but it’s true. And the Buccos’ 1-3 start to the second half only serves to reinforce those feelings.

Amazingly, despite significant injuries to almost every key player, the Cardinals have managed to keep pace in the division (currently 3.5 back, as the crow flies.) Lineup mainstays like Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, and Allan Craig have all missed substantial time, and heralded starters Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia have barely been factors (neither may pitch again this season.)

Now, one could easily contend that constructing a roster fraught with geriatric coffin-dodgers opens a team up to these types of problems. I can’t argue with that. Nor would I want to. I hate the Cardinals and I love that their knees are turning to dust.

But I don’t want any disclaimers when the Reds win, either. If St. Louis’s duct-taped roster can stick around in this race, how will it look if the Reds crumble without their leader? Like it or not, the Cardinals are the defending World Series champs. They got there, they won it, and they’re capable of getting there again, assuming they use the same combination of voodoo and genie wishes that they did before.

The injury to Joey Votto actually presents Cincinnati with a golden opportunity to cement themselves as the class of the division. A team defined by many, not by one. If they don’t, if they wilt without their front man, please believe that St. Louie fans will never let it go.

And THAT, my friends, would be the worst feeling of all.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Lead and Head of Jay Bruce Analytics

Cincinnati Redlegs: A Mid-Season Report Card

Way back in March, after being lucky enough to attend Spring Training in Goodyear, Arizona, I emerged with a full scouting report, complete with ballpark observations, Grand Canyon do’s and don’ts, and some bold predictions for our Cincinnati Redlegs. All that valuable information is free to you (just you), and can be found HERE.

Before the action starts back up tonight and the Reds cruise out to a 9-0 start to the second half (Ok, fine, 8-1), I thought it would be fitting to revisit some of that bawdy talk.

What follows is an honest assessment of just how valuable that scouting trip really was, with each prediction getting the pass/fail treatment.

1. It’s Jay Bruce’s year. Kind of a wah-wah right out of the gate, eh? Not to say Bruce has had a bad year (he did make the All-Star team, after all), but his maddening inconsistency is looking more and more like a trademark, rather than a result of growing pains. After doing what we all THINK we know he can in April (.954 OPS), Bruce regressed in May and June. Today he sits at .249, with 18 homers and 56 batted in. Really good for an average player. Good for a decent player. Average for a player of Bruce’s talent. Bruce is a cornerstone of the Reds’ future plans though, so average just isn’t good enough. No Reds fan alive would tell you they’re satisfied with .249 out of Bruce. The dude is just too good.

Grade: FAIL

2. I’m worried about the rotation. Turns out, I shouldn’t have been. Not only does this staff have baseball’s fourth best ERA (3.64), it also leads the world in complete games. That’s what you get when Cueto is consistently lights out (he has been), Bronson Arroyo has a big-time bounce-back year (he has) and, most importantly, you can last an entire half of a season without needing more than five starters. If someone goes down (take a second to knock on wood, please and thank you), things could get hairy. But until then, I’ve got confidence that the current pace of these starters will continue.

Grade: FAIL

3. Zack Cozart will be a ROY candidate. When Zack Cozart was promoted to the big leagues toward the end of last season, his fast start and subsequent injury left us all just assuming that, when healthy, this kid would immediately fill that Barry Larkin shaped hole in our hearts. Unfortunately, Cozart hasn’t exactly done that. BUT...he hasn’t been bad either. Along with exhibiting above-average defense, Cozart has put together a .252/.298/.409 slash line in his first legit stretch of Major League play. For fun, here’s how Reds’ Opening Day shortstops have fared since number 11 retired (full seasons):

2011: Paul Janish - .214/.259/.262
2010: Orlando Cabrera - .263/.303/.354
2009: Alex Gonzalez - .210/.258/.296
2008: Jeff Keppinger - .266/.310/.346
2007: Alex Gonzalez - .272/.325/.468
2006: Felipe Lopez - .268/.355/.394
2005: Rich Aurilia - .282/.338/.444

Neither Lopez nor Aurilia (the only two players on this list whose numbers surpass Cozart’s) played the kind of D that Cozart does. Combine that with the fact that they were both basically veterans, and suddenly Cozart’s rookie year production is looking really solid.

Rookie of the Year-worthy? No. But certainly a good sign for those of us who can’t let go of Barry’s Golden Age.

Grade: FAIL

4. Left field looks bleak. How about a double order of bleak, with a side of disappointing. Despite basically getting his best shot yet at regular playing time, Chris Heisey (.214 in April, .321 in May, .228 in June) has been as inconsistent as Bruce. Unfortunately, his running-mate, Ryan Ludwick, has been even worse. But despite rumors swirling about the Reds acquiring a big-swinging left fielder (Carlos Quentin, anyone?), the hunch here is they stay put with these two. Heisey is still short on experience and has hit .357 so far in July. And Ludwick, despite limited playing time, is third on the team in homeruns (12).

Grade: PASS

5. I’m not worried about the bullpen. There’s no way anyone can contend that the bullpen hasn’t been the surprise of the season so far. Led by an overpowering Aroldis Chapman, these guys have been phenomenal, especially when you consider last year’s setup men (Bill Bray/Nick Masset) and the replacement for last year’s closer (Ryan Madson) have been invisible due to injury. The fact that this bullpen is third in the league in ERA simply goes against all odds. However, if having Chapman, Logan Ondrusek, and Jose Arredondo come into their own all at the same time is what this squad needs to stay in contention (and, let’s face it, that’s exactly what has happened), I’ll take it.

Grade: PASS

6. Chapman will play a pivotal role. Back in March, this is what I said about Chapman’s role this season:

“The injuries in the bullpen and ineffectiveness in the rotation all point to the Cuban Warlord being more of an X-Factor than we originally thought (this season.) He’s been lights out this spring (1.50 ERA, 12 K’s in 12 innings pitched), even as he stretches out in preparation to start. If he ends up in the rotation, he could immediately become the ace. If he stays in the ‘pen, he could morph into the closer. Either way Aroldis, now more than ever, needs to come up big.”

As it’s turned out, Chapman has been huger than huge. Besides the week in June where Chapman was clearly possessed by a demon-monkey (6.1 innings pitched, eight earned runs over seven games), the Cannon has given up exactly zero earned runs. ZERO. For those of you scoring from the couch, that’s 33 innings, zilch allowed. Almost makes ya’ wonder what he could do with, oh-I-dunno, 200 innings or so. But let’s not be silly, that’s what STARTERS do.

Ugh.

Grade: PASS

7. Reds fans will love Wilson Valdez. At the beginning of the season I stated: “Cincinnati fans will warm to Valdez quickly this season, and he’ll play a bigger role than we may have originally thought.” However, that prediction was predicated upon the assumption that key players would get hurt for a substantial amount of time (as they almost always do.)

Valdez’ popularity in Philly came to be because old farts like Chase Utley and Placido Polanco couldn’t stay on the field, so he was shoved into the “super-sub” role. And while he’s gotten a few starts here and there and come up with some hits, Brandon Phillips/Zack Cozart/Drew Stubbs have stayed mostly healthy, and Frazier has provided a natural (and effective) back-up for Scott Rolen at third. The chances just haven’t been there.

Call me a cheater, but:

Grade: INCOMPLETE

8. As Latos goes, the team goes. This one’s a tough call, mainly because the lesser of the Reds starters have really picked up Mat Latos’ slack. In my initial prediction, I said that if Latos couldn’t be consistent, the Reds would miss the playoffs. Well, apart from his last three starts (absolute gems), he’s been up and down, side to side, and everywhere in between. One minute you think the Padres absolutely hosed us (eight earned runs in 5.2 innings on April 18th), and the next he’s mowing through guys like grass (seven scoreless innings on April 24th.)

As far as predictions go, I’ll be fair and say I whiffed on this one. But don’t be surprised if Latos’ success/failure plays one of the most pivotal roles in Cincinnati’s playoff chances down the stretch.

Grade: FAIL

9. No room for injuries. It was disturbing this spring when Todd Frazier didn’t make the team. Partly because he hit like Mr. 3,000 in Spring Training. And partly because his demotion was a result of injuries in the bullpen, which made the Reds’ brass hurry up and sign journeyman Alfredo Simon.

Now, I’ll be the first to admit that I’m SHOCKED that Simon has pitched as well as he has (1.78 ERA, with a K per inning). In fact, against my better judgement, I may just need to retire the nickname “Fat Alfredo Simon.”

But that aside, my initial trepidation was warranted, I think. Besides pre-season bullpen injuries, this club has stayed REALLY healthy, and they still haven’t been able to grab a tight hold of baseball’s weakest division. Knowing that, and knowing all of the Reds’ best young assets are in either in low-A ball, traded away, or in the big leagues already, it’s hard to imagine this team withstanding an injury or two to its key personnel.

As much as it pains me to admit, the Reds would be SUNK if they had a St. Louis-esque rash of injuries (Carpenter and Garcia, Beltran and Berkman, Craig and Jay, the list goes on and on.). The fact that all of that has occurred and the WLB's are still only a game and a half behind us? Well that just makes me sad.

Grade: PASS

10. Joey Votto will take home his second MVP. In March, I predicted that Joey Baseball (let’s get that nickname goin’, mmmkay?) would not only win the MVP, but also the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. And although the Pirates are staging more of a midseason flare-up than usual, led by center fielder/current MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, we all know that by mid-August the Bucco’s will be slogging around, five games under .500, and Joey will again collect the hardware he deserves. If you want to know what opposing pitchers think of Votto, just check his walk total. 65. The next NL first baseman? 39.

Maybe I’m being presumptuous here, but...

Grade: PASS

It almost seems fitting that I ended the first half 5-4 in my predictions. Just over .500. Not showin’ off, not fallin’ behind.

However, the good news is that the season is only half over. Which means Jay Bruce has the opportunity to step his game up and still hit that .285 I once dreamed about. And Mat Latos still has about 15 or so starts left, wherein he can make us all glad he brought his tattooed arms/wife to the Queen City. And who knows, maybe Zack Cozart starts heating up, Bryce Harper twists his ankle, and guys like Lance Lynn/Wade Miley come down with the bird flu.

That’d put me at 8-1. Which, if you’ll remember, is exactly how the Reds are going to start the second half. Full circle, ya’ll. Count it.

Reed Domer-Shank

JOURNEYMEN Honcho and Probable Reds Postseason Ticket Holder

Facebook Abusers: Part Deux

Back in April, I wrote what was by far my most popular piece yet for JOURNEYMEN. And by popular, I mean instead of my usual one million hits (roughly), it generated about three million (approximately). As some of you may remember, I put together a list of some of the worst types of Facebook abusers. Those who, through overuse or misuse, completely clog up and pollute the rest of our news feeds.

Well, in the weeks following, besides noting a spike in page views, JOURNEYMEN interns have been fielding tons of calls from people suggesting additions to the list. Evidently, as market research shows, there is no end to what annoys people about the ‘Book.

Being that I am a man of the people, I’ve taken your suggestions, added a few of my own, and come up with a sequel to Part I. Hopefully this resonates with you, my dear readers, and please know that I'm talking about other people here, not you guys. You’re all the kitty's titties.

Obviously.

The Doter (part 2)- In the first installment of this blog series, I profiled “The Doter”, aka the Mom who thinks it’s necessary to tell everyone about every poop her little Jeffrey takes, complete with pictures, play-by-play, and historical trend analysis. These Facebook Moms all fall into the same “home all day with nothing to do because my kid can’t walk/talk/understand shit yet” category, so they fill up our news feeds en force. What’s worse, however, is those people who don’t even HAVE kids, so they do the exact same with their pets, aka kid-proxies aka pretend-kids. Sure, Pickles was cute when you brought him home four summers ago. But unless he can do stuff like this, then face it: he’s just a fucking dog.

The Gamer - Attention, person-from-high-school-that-I-barely-knew: I only accepted your friend request because I was drunk at the bar and taking a poop and dicking around on my grainy Blackberry, where I could barely make out your picture. That doesn’t mean I’m going to send you oats for your farm, help you unlock the Hidden Temple, or join your stupid Bubble Safari. Go outside.

The Correspondent - One great thing about Facebook is how easy it makes communication. Like, seriously, you can talk to anyone or anything and they’ll ALWAYS hear you. Especially if you phrase your post in the form of a letter, and especially if you’re trying to describe something that totally sucks. Like Mother Nature. Or “guy parking you in”. Or Mondays. Dear Candace: stop bitching.

The Gym Rat - Ok, I’m just gonna’ say it: going to the gym is the absolute fucking worst. It’s loud, there are Kimbo Slice clones everywhere, and treadmills make me crave burritos. So, you can understand why reading about your “awesome workout!” at 2pm on a Wednesday makes me want to accidentally fall out my office window. No one cares about what a “great” sweat you just had. Sweat isn’t weakness leaving the body, it’s the body’s way of telling you to cool off with some goddamn DQ like a normal person. (PS: A special shout-out is warranted for the work-out fakers out there. You leaving for an hour at lunch with a yoga mat means jack if you come back with jiggle-arms and mustard stains.)

The Vanity Plate - So, just an open question to my black Facebook friends: what the hell’s up with the ridiculous middle names? “ChildaDestinee”? “Swag fa Real”? “Da Scrilla”? This shit has to stop, my friends. Seriously. Unless you’re ACTUALLY a rapper, let’s stick to what’s on the birth certificate. We’re all adults here. Your name isn’t Ron Ron 3000. It’s Ronald.

The Lurker - Everyone has what they would consider to be a “core” group of Facebook friends. These are the people who are either a) your good friends in real life, b) super-active Facebook users that jam up your news feeds, or c) people you have some kind of obscure connection with, i.e. that guy who also weirdly roots for the Raiders and sends you training camp links, or that chick you met at the vegan foodery who made you join her co-op. There are these regulars...and then there are the rest of them. The people you friended when you had just set up your account and adding “friends” was still exciting and fresh. The guy who summer camped with your bro when they were 13 and recognized your last name. The dude who sold you a juicer on Craigslist and then found you on that damn email Friend Finder. They’re out there, and just when you’ve completely forgotten they existed, they’ll “like” the pic you posted of your family reunion. Creepy.

The Hacked - There’s nothing more perplexing than when your grandma posts seven times a day about that awesome new weight loss supplement she’s been using. Especially considering she’s 87, in a wheelchair, and couldn’t gain weight if they put pudding in her IV. Okay, FINE Grammy, I’ll buy some freaking acai berries, but only because I’m going to save so much money on that free Ipad.

The Spoiler - So, it should be an arrestable offense to not own/operate a DVR, or to act as if you aren’t aware of the etiquette that accompanies them. It’s 2012, people. No one watches live TV anymore, so when your socks are knocked off by Bill Compton's behavior Sunday night, please don’t blow the wad for everyone else by lighting up Facebook. Of course, I don't expect you to wait forever to interface with your virtual buddies. The industry standard is to wait two days to catch up with shows, so after that, by all means open the floodgates. Keep in mind though that lately it’s been kind of money to wait three. In my house though? Six days.

The Memer - There was a time when meme’s were actually funny. Then they started multiplying, and then there were websites where people could make their own, and today it’s like I’ve literally seen the same picture of those Victorian women over and over again, only with slightly different variations of the “we’re bitches but we’re also great friends” theme stamped on the front of it. It’s time to retire those, anything having to do with politics, and definitely that played out Willy Wonka photo. We can do better people, I know we can.

The Couch Coach - And finally, you gotta love those people who treat Facebook like their personal ESPN message board. These guys wake up to SportsCenter, sleep with their lucky pigskin, and sometimes even write corny blogs. Basically, they love sports and they don't care who knows. And just in case anyone forgot, they hammer out commentary between every quarter/inning/period. Stuff like “wtffffff Falconssssssss” or “THAT PLAY NEVER WORKS” or “why do we suckkkkk????” Guess what, Darryl? If “we” didn’t apply when you pulled reserve minutes on your freshman basketball team, it certainly doesn’t now, as you sit on your sofa looking like a 230-pound cheetoh. Take off the Vinny Testaverde jersey. You’re embarrassing yourself.

* * *

Welp, that’s it for the second edition of the Facebook Offender series, guys. Now please excuse me as I go add this to my sports blog, where I’ll then proceed to re-post it several times to Facebook. Go Reds!


Reed “Da Rillest Shawty” Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Creator and Couch Coach Hall of Fame Inductee