The Most Pointless Trade Ever

As a Reds fan, I'm a member of a very special fraternity.

It's not official or anything, but it's made up of the select group of Southern Ohioans who enter every April knowing that we're in for about a month and a half of fun, followed by four and a half of boredom/mild depression.

There aren't many of us out there who still follow the wishbone C every season, in spite of the almost guaranteed heartbreak.

However, recently I was approached by another card-carrying member of this less-than-prestigious coven, a buddy from college named Mike Ritz. Ritz and I have stayed in touch over the years, mainly because he still owes me $15 dollars from a dormroom poker game, but also because we both have an unending love for that team from the Queen City.

Ritz, like many other Journeymen out there, had a story in his heart. A story that needed to be told.

Courtesy of the Sergeant at Arms for the Wooster chapter of The Reds Rooters, here's the third installment in the JOURNEYMEN Guest Blogger series...

“Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean, who can forget Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, for God’s sake?”
- Annie Savoy, Bull Durham

The other night, I was Facebook chatting with Reed as we watched the Reds lose to the Cardinals in 10 innings. Even before he walked the one man he had been brought into face, situational lefthander Bill Bray had drawn our ire for not being a Cuban refugee who throws 106 MPH. Really, we were just Dusty-bashing, mainly for the Reds’ manager’s reluctance to use his untouchable $30 million flame-thrower in such a crucial situation, but generally for what is widely perceived as his inability to make any sort of common sense decision involving his pitching staff.

Shortly after Bray walked the bases loaded, Matt Carpenter hit a sac fly to send the Cards to a 2-1 win and me grumbling to bed.

Cursing Bray’s control problems as I brushed my teeth, I thought about a point repeatedly made by Cincinnati Enquirer sports columnist Paul Daugherty: it’s easy to get fired up about a trade (or a draft pick) at the time it’s made, but a really honest analysis probably can’t be completed until five years or so down the road.

Look at Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez. (For a more in-depth and might I say stellar analysis of this deal, see everybody’s favorite blogger’s take on it from last spring, here.)

Reaction among Reds’ fans was split between “That guy was an absolute BEAST at the plate; how could we trade him???” and “It wasn’t cheap, but we have too many lefty bats and this Volquez guy is gonna be good.” Hamilton’s 32/130/.304 his first year in Texas was mitigated by Volquez’s 17-6 record, 3.21 ERA, and 9.5 K/9 innings his first year in Cincy.

But then Volquez started sucking.

People might tell you they saw EV’s inability to throw strikes coming, but realistically, it took some time for the dust to settle and the trade to be fairly judged. (Sorry Wayne Krivsky, you lost).

But what about another Krivsky deal that had Cincinnati so fired up in 2006? The one that sent the Reds’ starting shortstop and right fielder to Ol’ Leatherpants Jim Bowden’s Washington Nationals for a mediocre pupu platter. Surely it’s been long enough to take an unbiased look at Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner for Bill Bray, Gary Majewski’s fatigued arm, the Corpse Formerly Known as Royce Clayton, and a couple young guys nobody had ever heard of.

During the summer of 2006, the Reds were in the middle of a heated race for the putrid NL Central. Adam Dunn was whacking his 40 homers, Ken Griffey was able to play more than half the season, and everybody in Redleg Nation was looking the other way as Charlie Hustle’s heir apparent, speedster Ryan Freel, drunk-drove his way all over town. A young Brandon Phillips was emerging as a star, and Scott Hatteberg’s steady play at first base was easing the loss of Mayor Sean Casey.

All that was great, except the bullpen could not get a lead to closer David Weathers in the ninth inning.

Seriously, that’s how bad the bullpen was. David-effing-Weathers was closing games.

Much of the rest of the National League was in a similar boat – needing bullpen help, that is, not stooping to the level of handing Weathers the ball in the ninth – so it was evident that somebody was going to have to overpay for the few viable relievers.

One of the hot names on the market was the lead singer of Nickelback, err, some douchey guy named Gary Majewski. I had thought he was Canadian, but he’s actually from Texas. I guess I just thought he was really in Nickelback.

Majewski had been serviceable on a Nationals team that was still more than a few years away from contending, so Krivsky’s pursuit of him was to be expected. The Reds’ front office must have been convinced that adding Majewski and Bray, a young lefty with sick breaking stuff, was worth letting the Nats name their price for a bullpen haul that would allow the Reds to reach the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. (The Reds finished the season at 80-82, only 3 ½ games back of the St. Louis Whiners, who you may bitterly recall went on to sneak into, and somehow win the World Series that year.)

The backlash against Krivsky for trading two everyday starters and a young pitcher was strong. Some might have argued that middle of the road outfielders are eminently replaceable (and incidentally, we found Griffey moving to right field so Josh Hamilton could patrol center the following season), but Kearns was a guy who was drafted ahead of Adam Dunn and had been on track to win rookie of the year in 2002 until injuries cut his season short. But trying to replace the young and explosive (though error-prone) Lopez with 80-year-old Royce Clayton was just insulting to decent utility infielders everywhere.

Whether Majewski’s concealed arm fatigue and 8.40 ERA as a Red was foreseeable, and whether a less inept GM would have made a run at Washington’s bullpen duo aren’t questions we can ever answer. What we can analyze, nearly 6 years later, is who actually won that trade?

Where are they now, you ask?

Austin Kearns: Kearns and Lopez were both due big pay raises after the 2006 season, so it’s understandable that the Reds might not have wanted to overpay players whose contracts would outperform their performance. Kearns put together a functional 2010 season between Cleveland and the Yankees, but hit over .250 only one other time. Currently he still strikes out too much, and is stuck riding the pine for some guy in Miami who idolizes Fidel Castro. Plus, Krivsky replaced him with Josh Hamilton, who has put up slightly better numbers...

Felipe Lopez: For a short time in 2008, it appeared as if Lopez was going to be another in a long line of players whose careers have been miraculously revived in the steroid-nurturing clubhouse in St. Louis (see: Lohse, Kyle). But Lopez never lived up to his 30-30 potential, got paid way too much money by too many teams, and is not currently on a major league roster.

Ryan Wagner: Nobody was really sad to see Wagner leave Cincinnati. As a 20-year-old rookie at the end of the 2003 season, he had done his best Aroldis Chapman-in-the-future impression, mowing down opposing hitters and posting an impressive 1.66 ERA. By the time of his trade three years later though, he had worn out his welcome. The Reds had not only decided that Wagner was not the closer of the future, but that he wasn’t even as good as David Weathers. He was out of baseball after the 2007 season.

Gary Majewski: I just googled Gary Majewski and “Gary Majewski death” popped up as a suggested search. Turns out that was a different Gary Majewski in Michigan who died (R.I.P.). Our boy is still bouncing around the independent leagues, most recently trying out for the Sugarland Skeeters. (Don’t forget to sign your kids up for the Buzz Brigade!)

Daryl Thompson: A guy who seemed to be a throw-in to this trade, then seemed to have a really bright future, but now seems to have dropped off the face of the earth. In the days when I still thought Wayne Krivsky was a mad genius, Thompson looked set to validate my feelings when he made his major-league debut at Yankee Stadium in 2008. He threw 5 dominant shutout innings and got the win as the Reds beat the Yankees 6-0. Surgeries have derailed his career, but he signed a minor league deal with the Twins last winter.

Royce Clayton: Basically this.

Brendan Harris: Another flash-in-the-pan player who had a few frisky good weeks with the Twins but ultimately fizzled out.

So, the question is: was there ANYBODY involved in this deal who actually ended up mattering?

Oh yeah.

Billy Bray: Does this mean the Reds won the trade? Last man standing who contributes to a major league roster? Not so fast. His contribution to the Reds, as a supposed situational left-hander, is that he regularly walks the guys he’s brought into face. He’s actually pretty good at getting out righties, but what are the odds that Dusty Baker takes a break from managing by The Book?

So for as much of a stink was made about this trade at the 2006 deadline, it looks to have been a meaningless waste of print for GMs, talking heads, and bloggers alike. A completely worthless wash.

I guess it’s like they say. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.



MIke Ritz
JOURNEYMEN Guest Blogger and Warden of the Midwest

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Feel like telling your sports story? Think you can do it better than us? E-mail me directly (Reed.Domershank@gmail.com) to join the JOURNEYMEN guest blogger circuit!

Wet Willies, Bad Haircuts and Marijuana: The Week That Was

Possibly the scariest-looking dude ever.

Yes, it’s early in the season. No, we should not be panicking.

But as baseball fans in Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Boston can attest, losing is NEVER fun. It consumes you. It can haunt your dreams. It makes every day feel like the damn Pit of Despair, from The Princess Bride.

So, in times of desperation, we’re forced to shift our focus.

Here’s the second installment of The Week That Was, a celebration of everything completely absurd from the wide world of sports.

A Bengals cheerleader and Cincinnati-area high school teacher was arrested for having sexual relations with a student, which is about as surprising as a Jets cheerleader talking really loudly about great their halftime show is going to be , or a Browns cheerleader never really succeeding at anything ever.

Top basketball recruit Nerlens Noel committed to Kentucky by shaving the UK symbol into the back of his head, bringing new meaning to that “don’t worry about class” athletic department memo.

New York Jets lineman Matt Slauson gave his take on the team’s quarterback situation, saying the Jets will look like “two different teams”, depending on if Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow is under center. For the record, It’s still up in the air which one will be “really bad”, and which one will be “goddamn awful.” Slauson added that the new offense will be geared toward Sanchez’ strength, which is “running the ball.” Overall, just a really productive day for Slauson.

Dallas Mavericks guard Delonte West was fined for delivering a wet willy to Utah forward Gordon Hayward. Sooooo...I guess we have to start with this: WHAT??? I mean, every NBA player has an arsenal of ways to retaliate against someone who just pissed them off, ESPECIALLY dumbasses like Delonte West. But a wet willy? What exactly was the thought process there? “Hmmm...elbow to the back? Nahhh, that shit’s been done. Call him a little bitch as I walk by?? Nahhh, nahhh, way too unsatisfying. OH snap, I GOT IT! I’mma stick my finger in this kid’s ear....now THAT’s ganksta!” West declined to appeal the League’s $25,000 fine, stating that his actions set a bad example for “the kids.” If I were him, I’d have taken the opposite approach. “Yes, your honor, I DID initiate the wet willy. But, being that I’ve been arrested multiple times for transgressions involving drugs and/or loaded artillery , I think sticking my wet finger in a white dude’s ear is a great exhibition of progress. Especially cuz’, let’s face it, I very easily could have just banged his mom.”

Continuing with the “things really smart people do” theme, ex-Florida guard Erving Walker was arrested for stealing a taco from a food truck. As punishment, the court settled on a $301 fine, despite the prosecution’s insistence that Walker be “wet willied.”

ESPN debuted an investigative report, indicating that at least half the players on the Oregon football team smoke marijuana. A subsequent study is expected soon, conducted by JOURNEYMEN Worldwide and called  “Do we really need an investigative report to tell us that people smoke pot in Oregon?”

The Cleveland Cavaliers mascot was hospitalized, after engaging in a pre-game mock fight with Pacers forward David West. While West expressed his surprise at “Moondog’s” lack of fortitude, Cavs executives declined comment, except to mutter something about dogs taking on the characteristics of their owners.

A Texas-based apparel store drew SEC fans into a frenzy when it messed up the geography on a new t-shirt design. Intended to show all the states represented in the conference, the Aggileland Outfitters design added North Carolina (not an SEC state) and (somehow) omitted their home state of Texas. The massive public response to the mistake was surprising, mainly because it was proof that football fans from the South actually do know how to use computers.

The NHL Playoffs began, flooding bars everywhere with chubby bearded guys who only order Mountain Dew. Or at least that’s how I imagine it.

A settlement was reached in a lawsuit involving Nissan and former Saints running back Deuce Mcallister. On the hook for over one million dollars in defaulted payments, part of Mcallister’s defense was that he was a “young professional athlete, inexperienced in the motor vehicle sales business.” In other words, if you’re ever in hot water with the law, it’s now apparently completely OK to invoke the “but your honor, everyone knows I’m an idiot” clause. Thanks, Deuce.

The Alabama football parent who accidentally knocked over the Tide’s National Championship trophy, causing the crystal ball to shatter, apparently “doesn’t know how it happened.” This has to come as welcome news to all the ‘Bama fans who expected him to say: “Yes, I actually had this planned for weeks. In addition to the detailed blueprints and layout schema I pilfered from the school library, I was able to plant a fuse in the bottom left quadrant of the trophy case and link it to a timer in my backpack. I then staged an elaborate diversion involving two university lunch ladies, a 10-person student tour, and three opportunistic campus squirrels.” We can all breathe easier now, knowing that the proud parent of the team’s senior long snapper didn’t purposely obliterate what probably represents the greatest accomplishment in his family’s history.

And Finally, the Bobby Petrino fiasco got worse in Arkansas, as it was discovered that the head coach’s ongoing relationship with a young, blonde staffer included a $20,000 gift. Petrino’s affair with the 25-year old Jessica Dorrell began over a year ago, with what Petrino recently described as “just a kiss.” Oh, REALLY Bobby? Your affair with the bombshell who’s half your age didn’t start with you shagging her froggy-style on the fifty-yard line? You’re a saint!


That’s all for me. Happy Monday, sports fans.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN founder and Head of Taco Security

Facebook Abusers: 13 Types We Could All Do Without

Sometimes, when games start late, sports fans like myself tend to get trapped in a catatonic state of consciousness, where we can’t fall asleep (for fear of missing a historic comeback) but also can’t seem to focus.

Last night was one of those nights.

As usual, the Cardinals were treating the Reds like their own personal pommelhorse, and about five innings in I relapsed into that rogue state of mind, where the flickering blue light of the TV blurs everything together and the announcers lull me into a half-sleep.

So, out of boredom, I logged in to Facebook.

Facebook is great for a lot of things. Keeping in touch. Seeing photos of people you haven’t seen in six years. Inviting people who live eight hours away to your work’s happy hour.

But anyone who’s ever spent any time on the Social Network knows that “usage” can sometimes lead to “abuse." That is, there are certain people who, through the course of their actions, absolutely deserve at least a temporary ban from Facebook activity.

There are many types of offenders. Last night, I was able to identify a few...

The Stenographer - We all know people that treat their Facebook wall like it’s their personal diary. The people who feel compelled to tell all 900 of their friends that they “just woke up”, or that they’re “soooooooo hungryyyyy”. Like the old lady in the corner of the courtroom, these Facebook trolls don’t let a single event of their day go by without furiously notating it on their timeline. Hey Jeanine...if you’re wondering why no one commented on your “stuck in traffic” status update, it’s probably because there isn’t one person on your list who is still subscribed to your constant stream of nonsense. Now go brush your teeth, and try keeping it a secret this time.

The Compensator - There’s a woman I work with....let’s call her Karen. Karen spends half of every day grousing about her terrible marriage. Then she spends the other half composing Facebook wall posts about how she has the “greatest husband in the world” and how “Ooo myyy Gooooddd these flowers are so pretttyyy, I love you babe!!! - (with Mr. Karen).” Personally, I find a few things wrong with this. First, using Facebook to mend a relationship is like taking one of those “could cause suicidal thoughts/impotence” meds to cure joint pain. And second, anytime you’re using a social networking site to communicate with the person you WAKE UP NEXT TO EVERY DAY, there are some not-so-deeply-rooted issues that need attention.

The Show Off - What’s that, there? You’re in Prague? Wait, now you’re in Norway? You’re having brunch with the Queen? Fantastic. It’s good to know you’re staying busy enough to ALMOST not post 527 pictures to Facebook. The only thing worse than Show-offs are Wannabe Show Offs, i.e. the guy that posts seven times about how excited he is to be touching down in Nebraska. A tip: when 90% of the world would rather be sitting at their desk than where you just landed, it’s not Facebook-worthy.

The Rockstar - Two characteristics come together here to form one of the most common Facebook post abusers. First, you have the late-teens/early-twenties dudes who are either in school or just got out of school and have no concept of how posting pictures of their dingus will affect their chances of getting a job interview four months later. These are the same kids who feel the need to write “fuck” a lot, and fail to understand that the internet works EVERYWHERE, not just on their parents’ Compaq Presario. As they grow older, these guys take on the second characteristic (if they hadn’t already), which is getting really drunk and typing inappropriate things to inappropriate people at 4am.

The Doter - This might come as a shock to a lot of people, but there are a TON of babies in this world. Like, a shitload. Knowing that, I’m sure you can understand why constant pictures of your joy-bundle might get old to the 97% of your friend-base who aren’t immediate family. A few funny pics once in awhile? No problem. A detailed chronology of every meal, complete with post-poop updates? Unnecessary. Oh, and Mom: that photo you just posted, where you added a caption as if your baby could actually say words? Instead of saying “I love bath time!” you might consider “Hi, I look the same as I did an hour ago”, or possibly “Which one of you dicks made me cross-eyed?”

The Iron Chef - Is there some kind of secret competition going on, where the person who posts the best-looking homemade baked good wins some type of huge award? If not, I’m not sure I understand the “look what I just made” phenomenon. It’s one thing if you’re ACTUALLY a chef, and you’re making things that are completely jaw-dropping. Otherwise, before you post another picture of your rubbery scrambled eggs or the plate of sushi you just bought, ask yourself what EXACTLY the rest of the world needs to know. If “how good my normal-looking chocolate chip cookies look” isn’t the first answer that pops into your head, put down your iPhone.

The Minstrel - Hey, looking for an easy way to seem really sensitive and mysterious? All ya’ gotta’ do is post suggestive song lyrics randomly throughout the day, that may or may not have to do with your life or the troubles that may or may not be going on in the world. Everyone will be left wondering what they could possibly symbolize, and you’ll immediately become a smoldering, irresistible Facebook sex symbol.

The Morse Coder - Speaking of symbolism and trickery, Facebook is a perfect place to say what you want to say, but not really say it, but seem like you’re probably saying it. When strategy dictates that it isn’t smart to actually call or text someone to tell them they suck, you can always resort to the “this is for you, you asshole, but I’m not going to say it directly because that would give you too much credit” move. The best is when someone jots down about 14 accusations, drops a few F-bombs, and then adds “you know who you are.” Yeah? Well the rest of us don’t. Seriously, if you're not going to fill us in, then just send Antwan a damn e-mail.

The Bathroom Model - There is no better setting for a sultry one-person photoshoot than your own bathroom. Facebook has convinced me of this. Maybe it’s the dingy shower curtain in the background. Maybe it’s that piercing light the flash makes on the mirror that always obstructs half of the picture. Or, maybe it’s the fact that nothing shouts “SEX!” like pictures of the place where you take dumps.

The Christopher Columbus - Sometimes I wonder how people got by before “Check-in” was invented. It can’t have been easy to NOT be able to tell people when you walked through the doors of Radioshack, or to NOT let everyone know the moment you sat down at Chili’s. And on the flip side, how did all 7,000 of your Facebook friends cope with NOT knowing that you were at the eye doctor for a half hour, before heading to Coffee Bean and the circus? Thankfully for all of us, the veil has been lifted. By the way... in case anyone is wondering, I’m currently at home on the left cushion of my couch, wearing “The Grinch Stole Christmas” Boxers and eating a block of cheese.

The Activist - Dear uncle Bill: I find it charming that you’re so tuned in to all the problems our world is facing. I find it extremely admirable that you’re able to devote so much of your time and energy to informing the rest of us. And of course, you’re so brave for taking such firm stances on so many of the political issues. However, despite that racist thing that Newt said, and despite the fact that Joseph Kony is still at large, I’m pretty sure the real injustice here is that you’ve spent the last four days posting links on Facebook instead of, you know, actually doing something that matters.

The Cheerleader - Ok, somebody has to say it. Not EVERY picture of EVERY girl that is posted online is “gorgeous” or “amazing”. I know she put her hand on her hip and cocked her elbow out like a teapot. I know she tilted her head a bit and made sure her part was on the correct side. But despite the fact that those shoes were new and despite the fact that she was on a cruise, not every girl is “stunning." Some are just fat.

The Shameless Promoter - And finally, there are those who treat Facebook like their own personal billboard. These are the people that constantly post links to their fundraiser or their new business or, worst of all, their stupid personal blogs. If you happen to know anyone like this, please let me know immediately so I can approach them.


Thanks for reading, and please don’t forget to share this with everyone you know.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Principal and Head of Promotions

In Like a Lion: One Reason Not to Panic

Not many people love to watch baseball.

The casual sports fan thinks the game is too slow. And, while even most baseball fans love to go to games and try to catch a few innings here and there on TV, the majority find it hard to focus before the playoffs arrive.

I, however, am one of a relatively small contingent that is certifiably die-hard. I try to watch every inning of every game. If I can’t, I hit the DVR later that night. And if I know I won’t even be able to swing that, I’ll engross myself in the live online Gamecast on my phone, drawing the ire of dinner guests/movie patrons/wives everywhere.

It’s a curse, for the most part, and a past-time that anyone but a baseball purist would rank right next to “waiting for grass to grow”.

But for me, it’s a no-brainer.

I love the pace of the game. The pitcher plodding around on the mound anxiously. The hitter stepping out of the batter’s box to adjust every fold of his uniform. The commentators going on for minutes at a time on topics that have nothing to do with the game they’re watching. To me, it’s all part of the show. It’s what sets the game apart.

Lately, however, my love affair with hardball has felt strained...............at best.

Ten games into this young season, the Cincinnati Reds have started down a dangerously depressing path. Despite boasting a lineup that finished second last season in runs scored, Cincy’s offense has looked downright emaciated.

Before Sunday’s mini offensive explosion (four runs in one inning, three in another), the Reds were scoring less than Paraguay’s National futbol club (10 runs over six games). The drought’s been so bad, I actually spent forty-five minutes on the treadmill the other day thinking of things I’d RATHER do than watch the Reds continue to blow. Sadly, that list included “rub sand into my blisters”, “witness a Charles Barkley toilet session”, and “watch fat people take off bathing suits.”

For one of the only times EVER, watching baseball had ceased to be fun.

Thankfully though, if we can allow ourselves to push through all the strikeouts and injuries and bullpen implosions, I’m here to tell you that it won’t always be this way. There is, in fact, hope.

If it seems like the Reds are having a tough time in April, if it feels like wins are hard to come by, well, that’s because April is supposed to be tough for this team. See, between creating a Dusty Baker voodoo puppet and cursing the Orioles for bequeathing us Fat-Alfredo-Simon, I spent some time analyzing the Reds’ schedule. For many fans, a bad April equals a bad outlook for a season. Well, my hope was that that didn’t necessarily have to be true. And frankly, I wanted something to latch onto.

My method was simple. Take the consensus top three teams in the National League Central (the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers), and compare just how easy/difficult their schedules appear, by month. To do this, I had to decide what exactly made a month “easy” or “difficult”. So I took every team in baseball, looked at preseason prognostications/power rankings, took stock (to a degree) of their performance through a week and a half, and labeled each as either quality or subpar.

My quality teams included the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in the American League, and the Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Reds, Cards, Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins and Braves in the National League.

17 legitimate clubs in all, which is just over half of baseball. I think that’s pretty fair.

Each time a quality team showed up on the schedule, I gave the Reds (or Cards/Brewers, respectively) a -1. Each time a subpar team showed up, a +1. And finally, I simply added up each month. A simplistic analysis, to be sure, but compelling nonetheless.

Here are the results...

	CINCINNATI	ST.LOUIS	MILWAUKEE
APRIL	-10	-4	-1
MAY	-1	-7	-4
JUNE	+9	+15	+10
JULY	-2	-1	-11
AUGUST	+2	-7	+10
SEPTEMBER	+2	+2	-6
OCTOBER	-3	-3	+3
TOTAL	-3	-5	+1

A few things stand out here:

First, Milwaukee has an automatic advantage in this three-team race (in addition, obviously, to their rampant and unchecked steroid abuse). With a favorable schedule(+1 overall), the Brewers have an opportunity to win their second division title in as many years. It remains to be seen if, without Prince Fielder, they’ll have the firepower to capitalize.

Second, while Dusty Baker’s squad should make some serious hay in June(+9), the other NL Central contenders will be busy doing the same (+15 and +10, respectively). The caveat here is that six of the Reds’ “plus” games in June are against in-state rival Cleveland, a team that has historically given them trouble. Still, in order to keep pace, June has to be huge for Cincinnati.

Third, and most relevant to Reds fans today is that April(-10) is a straight up GAUNTLET for Cincinnati. Five series’ out of seven are against quality opponents, including two against the World Champion Cardinals and one against the devastating starting rotation in San Francisco. If the Reds can somehow weather that storm, the rest of the journey will seem docile in comparison.

For me, these numbers are just one piece of a complicated puzzle. That is, no amount of schedule-padding will help the Reds if they can’t get healthy, or if they can’t hit better than .230. Your opponents, no matter how Houston-like they may be, will only afford you so many opportunities to succeed. At some point, teams need to separate themselves on their own merit. The Reds have yet to do that this season, but the road surely looks smoother ahead.

For that reason, I guess I’ll keep watching.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Chieftain and Primary Meteorologist

10 Reds Observations from Week One

I’ll start this with one major caveat: I KNOW we’re only a week into the season.

Of course it’s early. Of course things could change in a day. OF COURSE we shouldn’t base assumptions on numbers players have cobbled together in seven days.

But with the excitement of a new season comes inevitable over-reactions, over-analysis, and loads of stress.

It’s the business we’re in. We watch, we react. It’s that simple.

So, don’t freak out, man. Let’s agree that nothing is effed.

But still...here are my reactions after one week of Reds baseball.

1) The Ryan Madson injury hurts, in lots of ways. When I heard about Madson shredding his elbow, I was busy tailgating for a Spring Training game and my drunkometer was hovering at medium. Maybe that’s why I only took the news semi-hard. After all, the Reds had a good bullpen last year and had added the league’s best lefty setup man in Sean Marshall. Turns out, I just didn’t give the whole situation enough thought.

A week into the season, the effects of the Madson nightmare are starting to come into focus, and they’re kind of scary.

First and most obviously, without Madson, the Reds are left with no proven closer. The man replacing him (Marshall) looks really good so far, and I personally am not worried that his first year as the head man won’t be a success. Still, that’s the most obvious effect, so I feel like I shouldn’t leave it out.

Second, Marshall taking over the ninth means others need to step up in the seventh/eighth. Nick Masset (no sure thing, himself) is hurt, so the responsibility shifts to a rickety Bill Bray and an erratic Jose Arredondo. UNLESS...(and this is number three)...Aroldis “Hammer Face” Chapman takes one for the stupid team and drops out of the rotation battle. Which he did...probably involuntarily. That move alone means Homer Bailey gets the rotation’s fifth spot, and we all saw how that movie can play out (three dingers given up in Monday’s first inning).

With Madson, we’re looking at air-tight eighth and ninth innings, locked down by two dominant pitchers who are comfortable in their roles. Middle relief duties would be taken care of by guys who SHOULD be pitching in middle relief (Arredondo, Ondrusek) and the rotation would include one of the filthiest mo-fo’s Fidel Castro ever misplaced (too soon?).

Without Madson, we’re looking at an unknown in the ninth, a shaky (at best) fifth starter, and guys like Afredo Simon pitching in middle relief.

Mother.

2) Middle Relief is a concern. Not to be redundant, but our middle relief corps is an issue.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote this article and said I wasn’t worried about the Reds’ relief pitching.

I’ll take “retractions” for a thousand. Alex.

In short, our sixth innings are currently manned by three guys whose early ERA’s could make your eyes bleed. Sam Lecure (6.00 ERA), Jose Arredondo (9.00), and Alfredo “not good enough for the Orioles” Simon (7.75) have been shaky at best, making these next observations all the more glaring...

3) Matt Latos HAS to be good. This one is simple. In order for the middle relief to be passable over the next week or so (while Bray and Masset get fully healthy), they cannot be overworked. Dusty needs to be able to pick his spots wisely with these guys, and not have to use them for two innings at a time, or in situations where the matchups beg him not to.

Sure, at times, that will be unavoidable. Bronson Arroyo WILL have games where his buttocks is handed to him in the first or second inning. Homer Bailey WILL continue to have a fastball that’s flatter than an Iowa expressway. But that’s why we need Latos to be a stabilizer.

Johnny Cueto is a good makeshift number one, and Latos needs to complement him and allow the ‘pen to recharge. He can’t have regular meltdowns, and he can’t underperform his expectations. If he does, I say the Reds miss the playoffs.

In fact, I’ll put that out there right now: as Latos goes, the team goes.

Let’s validate that statement in July.

4) Homer Bailey will never be a good Major League pitcher. I doubt you’ll find a Reds fan anywhere that doesn’t REALLY wish Homer Bailey would work out.

At one point he was the savior. Then he was the “wow if he could ONLY stay healthy” guy. Then he slowly took on the “high upside fourth starter” role. Now...ugh...it’s like we’re all just wishing he would go away.

Yeah, sure, the talent is there. Or at least it WAS there, at one point. But nothing out of Homer Bailey (seemingly since the Clinton Administration) has proven that he’ll be anything more than a fifth or sixth insurance arm. It’s sad, but I have to side with my heart, not my head on this one.

I’d say “Homer being done” is another bold prediction; but that would assume that most of you aren’t completely aware of this sad reality already. Still, I say he never has a 12+ win season or a sub-4.00 ERA.

Ever.

5) Jay Bruce is making me look good. In my preseason predictions, I said Jay Bruce would parlay his new physique and increased experience into a dynamite season. I predicted a .280 batting average and 35-40 homeruns. I predicted he’d win a Gold Glove.

So far, Bruce leads the team in homers and RBI, and has had several base hits (little hook shots where he went with the pitch instead of flailing wildly) that he NEVER would have had at this time last year.

I predict I was right.

6) Drew Stubbs = the forgotten man. Remember Opening Day? Remember what Drew Stubbs did that made every Reds fan in the country go all goat-kneed? Thats right...Drew Stubbs BUNTED, ladies and gents. And he emerged with a base hit to show for it.

Since that at-bat, his first of the year, Stubbs has gone three-for-19 and hasn’t even attempted to SPELL bunt.

There was a time when I got excited at the thought of Stubbs’ “tools”. Tingly, even, when he’d come up to bat, reeking of triples-speed and ding-dong power. These days? I’ll be quite honest...as he sits there sandwiched between Heisey and the catcher, sometimes I LITERALLY forget he exists.

Dear Drew,

Bunt More.

Signed,

Everyone

7) Willie Harris is worthless. Corey Patterson. Willy Taveras. Fred Lewis.

Willie Harris.

I know preaching to Reds fans about how LITTLE Willie Harris will contribute this year is probably like telling the residents of District 12 how uncool the Hunger Games are. I get it, and I won’t spend much time on it.

But seriously...you’ve heard about athletes that make everyone around them better? Well every time I watch this guy struggle through an at-bat, I feel MYSELF getting worse.

8) Wilson Valdez is not. I like to think that, as a resident of Philadelphia, I have a pretty unique perspective on how valuable Wilson Valdez can be.

First, he was the winning pitcher in that 19-inning marathon last year, a game I attended and one that was surely a big demoralizer for the Reds. Yet, Valdez has value beyond his ability to win 19-inning snoozers, and you need only listen to Philly talk radio to understand it.

Last season, as Chase Utley commuted back and forth from the retirement home, Valdez stepped up in countless situations, providing a steady bat in the lineup and a reliable glove anywhere he was needed.

Today, as the same Chase Utley continues to age at three times the pace as the rest of humankind, Philly fans cannot believe the organization let Valdez get away. The guy’s a gamer, plain and simple, and he’d be invaluable this season at Citizen’s Bank park.

Luckily for Reds fans, he now plays in Great American, where just yesterday he dropped down TWO bunts (two!) for hits. I predict that Cincinnati fans will warm to Valdez quickly this season, and that he’ll play a bigger role than we may have originally thought.

9) We are a much better team with Scott Rolen at third base. As steady as Valdez may be, he is still no substitute for someone like Scott Rolen.

Sure, Rolen’s bat may never be what it once was (he’s currently hitting .118). But I say Rolen hits between .275 and .280 this season, provided he stays healthy. If he does, we’re a MUCH better team. Period. And plays like his bare-handed laser-beam to first the other night prove it.

I like Miguel Cairo, but I REALLY like Scott Rolen.

10) This team has NO room for injuries. Despite a disappointing series against the Cardinals (where they barely avoided a sweep), I like this Reds team. I think the hitting has depth throughout the order and will be fine, I think the defense will be superb, and I think we’ve got a few really good arms.

Still, the Phillips and Madson injuries show what a few dents and dings can do. Without Phillips, Dusty has already resorted to things like leading off Willie Harris and Drew Stubbs. Without Madson, guys like Todd “Spring Training He-man” Frazier get sent down in favor of Alfredo Simon.

A serious injury to Votto, Phillips, or Bruce would be really detrimental to this team’s chances. A serious injury to Cueto? I’d say pack it in.

Though stocked with potential, I say this team (especially after watching them for a week) NEEDS to stay healthy.

Now then...everybody go freak out.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Creator and Lead Conclusion Jumper